Steve Ballmer predicts $100 smartphones in 1-2 years
By Paul Miller 
posted Feb 15th 2006 7:00AM
posted Feb 15th 2006 7:00AM
The CEO of Microsoft,
in an interview at 3GSM, claimed that they're hoping to "get smartphones at consumer style prices," but that
he thinks "it will take a year or two before we get to $100 type offerings (of Windows Mobile devices). I maybe be
wrong, but not by much." Steve Ballmer also stated that they're seeing the smartphone as eventually holding a
"very large share of the total market" and while Symbian is currently dominating the sector, and Microsoft
isn't planning on Nokia as a customer anytime soon or necessarily planning price cuts on their own OS, Microsoft would
"do everything that is needed to invest in this market and expand in this market." What more can you ask for
than that?
Microsoft has certainly got a real fight on its hands here.
Whilst their current smartphones appeal to enterprise and techno-junkies, I think they will have a hard time selling their devices to the average consumer.
The main problem, as I see it, is that most of their devices are designed and built by HTC. HTC have zero brand recognition and most consumers will stick to brands they know. With the success of the RAZR, it's obvious that industrial design is a top priority for consumers, but this is also HTC's biggest weakness. The build quality of their devices is also questionable. The SMT5600 was notorious for its problems and apparently the newer Cingular 2125 is also seeing similar issues. To put it simply, HTC are unlikely to ever hit mass market.
So that leaves Microsoft looking at other manufacturers to provide them with that leap into the mainstream. Motorola have proven to have a very poor track record when it comes to Windows smartphones and are increasingly throwing their weight behind Linux. Samsung are producing a few Windows smartphones, but again, are exploring other smartphone platforms and could jump ship. And then we have Nokia and Sony Ericsson exclusively releasing Symbian handsets. None of the big manufacturers are really getting behind Microsoft at this point.
So, I don't see where the volume sales are going to come from.
I'm sure Microsoft will play their usual game - plug away, invest huge sums of money, slowly improve their product and wait for the opposition to slip up. It's a strategy that's worked for them many times in the past.
$100 smartphones would usher in a whole new era of R&D for mlearning! Now if only PDA-hybrids didn't cost an arm and a leg.
Affordable mobile learning, that's certainly something to chew on.
1. M$ mobile and handheld computing solutions have never been the best available but,
2. that really doesn't matter because,
3. M$ have enough money to pay manufacturers to MAKE phones with their OS and GIVE them to the carriers which would pretty much sink SYMBIAN and LINUX
Of the $100, approximately $100 will go to Microsoft for windows license ;)
Finally! It has taken the industry this long to realize that consumers want less expensive smartphones. Heck better software in current cellphones would be a big improvement. I know that the normal cameraphones they hawk these days are more than capable of handling user data better and being able to synch with a computer database of names/addresses/numbers.
I think once the phones become affordable people will switch in droves. What consumer wouldn't pick a phone that has the same interface as their computer at home and at work? That has the same contacts? A phone they can use out of the box without reading the manual?
I think only price has kept them out of the average joe's hands.
Yeah. We'll see $100.00 Smartphones. Sure. That's after the rebate the carrier gives you after ensnaring you with a two year contract! Or was Balmer talking about a $100.00 price with no contract requirement? Those are two different prices people. I mean, you can get an SMT5600 with Cingular for under $100.00 now but you have to sign up for two years with them and if you already have a contract with them then tough luck.
Re: "What consumer wouldn't pick a phone that has the same interface as their computer at home and at work?"
Is it possible that the reason nobody carries a Windows smartphone isn't because they're expensive, but because nobody wants to carry a heavily branded, awkward micro-Windows PC in their pocket?
Does anyone really like the Windows interface? Is it really the best fit for a mobile device?
Heck, $100 smartphone with perfiferals like keyboard (and probably some kind of cranking mechanism to charge it) may pose a serious threat to those MIT $100 laptops. And when fuel cell will become viable, they'll run on vodka too:) This will be a good way for Mr. Gates to get back at people who preferred Linux over Windows for the $100 lappies.
Doesn't sound far-fetched IMHO. You can now get entry-level Nokia phones for under 50 euros.