@mahoney: Re the auction winners. The license rules stipulate that they have to build to cover 45% to 55%, depending on license, of their POPs before the end a 5 year period. During the 5 year period, they are allowed to subdivide or sell their licenses but they must sell to an entity that meets the same restrictive covenants of the set aside spectrum. Only three carriers in Canada did not meet the covenants of the set aside spectrum - Rogers, Bell, and Telus. So the new entrants can sell their licenses but not to the three major incumbents. As well, if they haven't met the build criteria by the end of five years, they risk losing their license back to Industry Canada.
Most of the larger new entrants will start offering service using roaming sometime in mid to late 2009 and begin to build their networks to backfill their customers and market plans. However, other than the cableco based competitors, the others will probably have financial difficulties in the longer term. The Canadian market cannot support 4-6 carriers. The much larger US market can barely support 4-5 per market - evidence the recent wave of consolidation and Sprint's current troubles. Either way, with three new competitors in each market, get ready for much better plans - at least for 3-5 years. Don't lock yourself into 3 year contracts this year!
Well, Japan is positively tiny compared to Canada and it comfortably supports 5 carriers (Softbank, DoCoMo, and au are the incumbents, Willcom and EMobile are the "others").
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@mahoney: Re the auction winners. The license rules stipulate that they have to build to cover 45% to 55%, depending on license, of their POPs before the end a 5 year period. During the 5 year period, they are allowed to subdivide or sell their licenses but they must sell to an entity that meets the same restrictive covenants of the set aside spectrum. Only three carriers in Canada did not meet the covenants of the set aside spectrum - Rogers, Bell, and Telus. So the new entrants can sell their licenses but not to the three major incumbents. As well, if they haven't met the build criteria by the end of five years, they risk losing their license back to Industry Canada.
Most of the larger new entrants will start offering service using roaming sometime in mid to late 2009 and begin to build their networks to backfill their customers and market plans. However, other than the cableco based competitors, the others will probably have financial difficulties in the longer term. The Canadian market cannot support 4-6 carriers. The much larger US market can barely support 4-5 per market - evidence the recent wave of consolidation and Sprint's current troubles. Either way, with three new competitors in each market, get ready for much better plans - at least for 3-5 years.
Don't lock yourself into 3 year contracts this year!
More discussion on this on my blog: http://cellcanada.wordpress.com
Well, Japan is positively tiny compared to Canada and it comfortably supports 5 carriers (Softbank, DoCoMo, and au are the incumbents, Willcom and EMobile are the "others").