CE-Oh no he didn't! Part LIX: Elevation's McNamee predicts death to iPhone on June 29
By Paul Miller 
posted Mar 6th 2009 11:03AM
posted Mar 6th 2009 11:03AM
Roger McNamee, founding partner of the Palm-rescuing investment firm Elevation Partners, has had some interesting things to say about what to expect from the Pre. Now, though, he's really out done himself with what he has to say about the iPhone. In an interview with Bloomberg, McNamee (aka "Chubby Wombat Moonalice" when playing bass) predicted that the Pre will bring the downfall of Apple's wunder-handset, saying:June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it -- if you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they're going to buy.We don't know the future, but we can sure tell you what we're not buying right now. And besides, we don't know too many early adopter types that could resist the siren call of 3G halfway through their existing iPhone contract, thereby re-upping their contract for another few millenia. That should be plenty enough time for Apple to whip up something new... or at least for Roger to get a haircut.
[Via Daring Fireball]
I don't know who he's paying for market research but he needs to find someone else.
And I'm not even a fan of the iPhone.
So I think this guy is definitely an iPhone virgin, having heard the hype but never having the experience. Actually, he's probably a virgin in more ways then one. Also adding insult to injury is the fact it will be released as a Sprint exclusive....So the world's foremost failure of a Smartphone OS is teaming up with the world's foremost failure of a carrier and this is not only going to equal success, but success the size of iPhone? I'm returning my business degree tomorrow; I obviously have a lot to learn.
Wow....... Yo sir, are in the deepest part of the pool of Apple's Kool-ade. I'd expand more on what ways you're wrong, but that would be a waste of my time.
Not sure about the pool full of kool-ade.?. The virgin comment may have been harsh sarcasm but the statement about Palm and Sprint....well....the numbers don't lie (they can’t even be cynical).
http://investors.sprint.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=127149&p=irol-quarterlyearnings
http://investor.palm.com/events.cfm
I really need some of what he's been smoking!!
Nothing like pissing off would-be interested parties in the Pre, Roger! I think the Pre looks great, but 1) I'm not even about to think about changing to Sprint and like the article states 2) many people upped to the 3G iPhone and/or started new with the iPhone 3G, hence making many of us still mid-way through our 2-year contract.
Arrogant statements like the one Roger's making do nothing more than piss people off. He's flat-out wrong if he thinks "Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later." Very wrong.
I am one of the people who bought the original iphone on June 29th and didn't upgrade to the 3g iPhone, because it was not enough of an improvement to justify the added monthy fees to use it. I am waiting for the next iPhone to be announced to see if it is a worthy upgrade, since am still eligible for the subsidized price since I didn't buy the new 3g! :)
As far as the Palm Pre goes, it looks like it will be a great phone and the first one to really compete with the iPhone. But, the fact that it is going to be released on Sprint will hurt it sales. And also because the target market for it has already purchased the iPhone 3g and is still on contract on AT&T and will be for a long time, well after the release of the pre. And a lot of those folks already paid early termination fees on other carriers to come to AT&T for the iPhone 3G.
Lots of iPhone fanboys here, I see.
The Pre will not replace the iPhone simply because too many people are hooked on Apple for "chic" and "cool". This phone also isn't meant to be a media player like the iPhone, but is more versatile for messaging, multitasking, etc.
Also, Sprint's network has come a long way. The price is decent, and beats the iPhone for the 450 minute SEP @ $69 (AT&T's comparable plan would be well over $80 for the iPhone). Regardless, it's a different market, and just a bold statement anyway to gain some attention -- which he successfully did just that.
You know, it IS possible to like the iPhone and not be a fanboy. Plenty of us like the iPhone for reasons other than it being "chic" and "cool". I get SO TIRED of hearing the word "fanboy". I like my iPhone because it fits MY needs, which are likely different than your needs, and I get sooooo tired of people such as yourself lumping anyone who likes the phone into this stereotype of people too dumb to like a phone for valid reasons like usefulness, games and/or productivity. I'm a cellphone geek and I've tried the lot of them - Palm, WM, BB and the iPhone. I use my phone primarily for web surfing the games, so yeah, that's why I like the iPhone. But does it matter why I like my phone? To you, probably not.
Plenty of us, too, see the flaws in the iPhone and deal with it. Every OS, every phone manufacturer, every carrier - they all have flaws. No one phone is better than another when you consider that each of us chooses a phone for different reasons. Not everyone chose the iPhone 'cause it's "chic". Not everyone wants wi-fi, not everyone cares about games, some people just want to make calls, etc. Quit dumping all iPhone users into the same category!
I get so tired of people jumping on anyone's back for liking the iPhone. Who gives a fart which phone you like? What criteria does a person have to meet to NOT be a fanboy when owning the iPhone? You're a name-calling fanboy. How about THAT? ;)
Flame on.
Jonathan, your "virgin" comment wasn't harsh, it was factually false.
McNamee ownes -- and carries with him -- both an original iPhone and an iPhone 3G, plus half a dozen other devices.
Go to 1:50 to see all that he carries with him -
http://www.engadget.com/2009/01/19/palm-investor-mcnamee-details-pres-neat-location-based-features/
His comment, however, is off the mark. Early adopters aren't likely to fear early termination fees.
Engadget's reading of his comment is also off the mark. The iPhone in 3G and various other forms and McNamee has no delusions other wise. He was speaking of the few early adopters, too afraid of ETFs to upgrade to something else, who will be looking for a new device now that their contract is up ... which still does not justify his comment.
Jesus-Freakin-Christ! What mushrooms has he been eating lately?! If this is -any- indication of the generalized view that is all that keeps Palm in existence, Palm's board just shit a pile of bricks! This is like MiniMe predicting he's going to run a 100-yard fumble-recovery back for a touchdown in the SuperBowl! Get this guy sobered up already!
[Public disclaimer for the mouth-breathing trolls: No Apple products here]
WTF is this guy smoking??? Ok, the Pre looks pretty frikin cool, I'll give you that. But cool enough to make everyone toss their iPhones? NOT EVEN CLOSE.
But he knows that. He's just talking smack. Big time.
until the pre can have close to 1/4 of the apps that the apple apps store offer, and become an offering in something other than sprint, then it would have a chance to start succeed truly. until then, it's another pretender in the making. we are jumping into conclusion way too soon, just ask the owners of samsung instinct and blackberry storm.
but still, pre does "appear" to have the best potential of all the phones that came up so far. only time will tell
I really enjoy the simultaneous voice and data offered by HSPA.
I'm not buying a Pre unless it has a micro sdhc expansion slot.
Wow.....look at all the Iphone fans here. Do you like the way your device can only run ONE app at a time???? Oh sure the interface may run smooth but thats about where it ends. Any device that can't do multiple tasks at once is a DUMB phone and that's the industry definition. Hey you got lots of apps though right.....you can ifart and make believe your drinking a beer or a soda.....you can even make believe you have a lighter....WOW!!!! HTC and now Palm are creating devices that far surpass the non-mighty Apple and WebOs, Android and dare I say WinMo give users the power to MULTI-TASK. But hey, Iphonies got more bars in more places to do less on a network that CLAIMS to be the fastest 3G network, only to be one of the slowest. Don't knock Roger for believing in the work his teams are doing, more people need to have the same passion for their work. Sprint and Palm will be successful and neither are going anywhere anytime soon. Some users will ditch where they are at now and go to Sprint for the Pre, please don't think that they won't.
"Wow...look at all the Iphone fans here."
Wow. Look at all the iPhone haters here. People who are defending the iPhone are not saying that it's an amazing product and that the Pre is a piece of crap. It's the anti-Apple bias that is making this thread obnoxious. Everyone defending the iPhone is simply saying that nothing will take down the iPhone. They're not talking about quality, but they're talking about sales. It's ignorant to think that one phone by a company that is not popular or well known with the public will take down the highest selling phone in the U.S., especially on a dying carrier. Nothing will take down the iPhone anytime soon because of how popular Apple is with the general public and because of what demographic they target. This isn't a fanboy speaker, it's just someone saying facts.
And because I'm defending Apple, that doesn't making me a fanboy. Since when did preferring a product for legitimate reasons over another great product make you a fanboy? If anything, those people are the ones who are biased.
I have been a long time sprint user and came from AT&T, I understand that sprint has been failing in keeping their customer a couple of yrs ago but check the stats now. Sprint has become number 1 in customer service and satisfaction and I feel it. I love how sprint came out with this new device that we entertain the younger group but will also be wonderful for a business that we serve us as sprints first I-CON. Yes the iphone is sexy and sheek but I need to use some office apps that only the Pre could offer. I have been waiting on this phone and alot of other customer have too, so expect for this phone to have a big bang. Who wants to pay $30 or more for unlimited everything? No one from Sprint we rather keep our pockets fat, but I do feel "Wombat" was premature stating that iphone is dead. We all know this phone could easily come out with a new HOT one but for now, Pre DOES got this phone beat by a LONG shot.
^The interweb is wasted on the young & stupid. (Of course, 'T.O.' may not be that young) ;)
Sprint is NOT number one in customer service and not even close to it.
I'm sure the Pre will be a great phone for some people just like the iPhone is for others, but unless its on Verizon I'm not interested. I'd really like to have either of those phones over my BB but can't stomach the inferior coverage and that fact that 80% of my friends family are on Verizon.
Different things matter to different people - I don't think iPhone owners are all fanboys, some just like the features it offers.
I don't think I will like the Pre. The keyboard looks too small like all other Palm products. My fingers are too big for them.
T.O. is on the same drugs as McNamee. 1. Sprint isn't even close to being a customer oriented company... Every company I've worked for in the midwest has had sprint at one time or another - universally they dumped them for Verizon, AT&T, or US Cellular primarily because of customer service. 2. McNamee thinks Palm can be saved... that right there should clue you in to his mental health. 3. Palm always pulls one nice device off every five or six years - then screws up and shoots them selves in the foot in between those years. 4. Get a haircut or lose the tie...
This was a bold statement and can be looked at positively or negatively on both sides. Binaryspiral quantifies my views with the statement that people left Sprint because of billing issues which were stopped with the new plans, change has happened in both the companies associated with the Pre.
Well, considering the Pre is a Sprint exclusive for a year, I'd say it's not going to go anywhere. If it was available on any network (at least tailored to different networks), then it'd be a horse of a different color. But I really don't see this attracting anyone back to Sprint, and therefore, I don't see anyone really being attracted to the Pre.
Damn shame, too. I was really jazzed about the Pre.